The Housing Crisis

There is a housing crisis. Not just here in Oregon, but nationwide. Simply put, there are not enough houses being built. This first started with the Great Recession. Many builders and developers shut down for about 4 years. When the housing market rebounded, the builders and developers simply did not catch back up. I heard a panel of economists on a Bloomberg podcast about a year ago quote the statistic that to meet demand nationwide, 3,000,000 new housing units need to be built each year. These can be small apartments or mega mansions, the housing need is in every shape and size. At the time of the podcast, the average being built annually was 1,300,000: not even half of the demand.

New homes construction site

Our new Governor, Tina Kotek, has made construction of housing a top priority in her administration. To accomplish this, she is putting everything on the table, including revising, or perhaps even removing, tree ordinances. While I truly admire her willingness to open the conversation to every option, our stewardship of the environment is also a top priority for the citizens of this state. As you can imagine, it’s creating some real conversations (or should I say arguments?).

Steve Duin has written an excellent article on the subject that can be found at Oregonlive.com. To read it, click here. Interesting side note. I’ve been a big fan of the writings of Steve Duin for years. The Oregonian was a part of my daily routine and I always looked forward to Steve’s columns. Also, the very first house that I ever listed for sale in my real estate career was purchased by Steve. He still lives in that house.

To give you a summation of the article, he has in the past argued that the Urban Growth Boundary is part of the problem. In this article he admits to being taken to the woodshed by people who know better and that the real problem is not a lack of land, it’s a lack of infrastructure. Historically, infrastructure was subsidized by the Federal government. That financial support was eliminated by the Reagan administration. We have plenty of developable land currently within the UGB, trees and all, but the development costs are a huge obstacle to getting the housing built. I encourage you to read the article.

This is a bit off course from what I usually write. I hope that you have found it as interesting as I have.

Dianne

Searching for Properties

I thought I’d post this graphic to give you a behind-the-scenes idea of how our overall area is segmented for us Realtors to hone in on what a Buyer says they want. The powers that be have divided locations and therefore created an order of sorts to searching for properties. This translates to public searches as well as Realtor ones, and/but is interesting from our perspective because it is the quickest way for us to pull up data on statistics etc., and it also governs how people navigate online. For instance, as you can see, Lake Oswego is combined with West Linn for RMLS purposes into area 147. We can pull some Lake-Oswego-specific data, but have to use a few tricks & maneuvers to do so. Also, if a home is on the dividing line between two areas, a Realtor may find themselves weighing pro’s & cons of advertising in one area or the other when listing a home. Most of the time it’s a no-brainer what area a property fits into, but sometimes it can mean a person searching for a home in one area may not see a home if it is assigned to the area next-door. This came up recently with a rural property on the dividing line between areas 148 (which bumps up against Lake Oswego and stretches all the way to near-Sauvie Island) and 149 that may have been seen by people searching closer in to Portland but maybe not by people looking for acreage who would prefer to be farther from Portland.

An Economic Snapshop

This past week I attended a webinar that featured Laurence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, and Dr Jessica Lautz, the VP of research for the National Association of Realtors. It was very interesting.

Here are some takeaways:

The increased interest rates are having an impact. Home sales are down 23% since January of 2022. I think the biggest impact is happening for first-time buyers. Interest rates have doubled in the last year and that has priced out many first-time buyers. They generally have smaller down payments and larger mortgages. I don’t think that this is having too much of an impact here in LO. Condos are still selling very strongly and a good deal of our market is dominated by buyers who are bringing equity from a home that they have sold.

People are moving less often, but are moving greater distances. It used to be on average every 5 years that folks moved. Today, that number is every 10 years. In addition, whereas in 1989 people on averaged moved 1 mile away from their previous home, today the average is 50 miles. So many people now work from home, which has really enhanced people’s options.

Cash buyers now account for 25% of sales. This percentage was 20% pre-pandemic.

I’ve posted the most recent market numbers according to the RMLS. You’ll see that some parts of the metro area have actually experienced depreciation. It’s been years since I’ve seen this. Columbia County and North Portland are particularly hard hit. The good news is that Lake Oswego is holding on and still doing comparatively well.

As of June inflation is at about 3%. 2% is considered to be optimum. It takes time for the results of the Federal Reserve adjustments to be felt in the economy. Mr Yun predicted that by the end of this year the Fed will easy up on interest rates. I am going to hope so.

After several decades in this business I’ve seen and experienced the cycles. We had such a booming market from 2016 to 2022. Appreciation was double digit annually for several years in a row. The economy making adjustments is normal and healthy. Yes, interest rates have priced out many first-time buyers, but so has the cost of housing. We need the entry level buyers. I think I’ll call it trickly up economics. That first-time buyer creates a second- time buyer.

Please reach out to Linda or I if you have any questions. And, as always, thank you for reading the blotter.

Dianne

This Week in Lake Oswego

Below are my picks for what to do in Lake Oswego this week!

Mon, Aug 7, 2023 – 7:00 PMDevelopment Review Meeting – Learn about new & upcoming development projects in Lake Oswego, and/or register to participate. – More Info: CLICK HERE

Tues, Aug 8 2023 – 2:30PM-4:30 PM – Slow Jam ~ Dust off your musical instrument and come join others in a relaxed setting to make some music together! – ACC, 505 G Avenue Lake Oswego More Info: CLICK HERE

Wed, Aug 9, 2023 – 6:30-8:30 AM “Jennifer Batten & Full Steam” Wednesday Concert Series~  Come to Westlake Park for this amazing opportunity to experience one of our contemporary greats! From Superbowl halftime shows, touring with Michael Jackson, collaborating and touring with Jeff Beck, performing for Cirque Du Soleil in Las Vegas, and being inducted into Guitar Player Magazines “Gallery of the Greats” the list of accolades and accomplishments goes on and on.  Her latest project is “Jennifer Batten & Full Steam” featuring some of Portland’s finest talent- More Info :  CLICK HERE

Thurs, Aug 10, 2023 -1-3 PMScrabble! ~Come enjoy pl;aying this timeless word game & make new friends! ACC, 505 G Ave. – More Info:  CLICK HERE

Fri, Aug 11, 2023 – 11:30-12:30 AM -Lunch 2 Go ~ Enjoy a lunch prepared for you to go! Suggested donation $5, or $2-$4 for seniors. Order by 24 hrs ahead. Pick up at 505 G Ave More Info: CLICK HERE

Sat, Aug 12, 2023 – 8:30 AM-1:30 PMLake Oswego Farmers’ Market – Enjoy the region’s finest food, artisan crafts, music & fun. It’s a summertime staple in lake Oswego! – Millennium Plaza Park, 200 1st Street More Info :  CLICK HERE

Sun, June 18, 2023 -A Bookish Affair- 11-12 PM – Meet on Zoom with other Romance & “Happily Ever After” Enthusiasts! This week they’ll discuss Secret Lives of Country Gentlemen by KJ Charles.. – More Info: CLICK HERE

Market Activity ~ July 10-16, 2023

Last week in lake Oswego 25 properties entered the market (New), 16 moved to Pending status and 27 Closed/Sold.

Right now there are 189 properties available in Lake Oswego ranging from $237,500 to $11,500,000.

NEW July 10-16, 2023:

AddressList PriceBedsBathsSFProp Type
86 KINGSGATE RD #22$335,00022924CONDO
6880 SW MONTAUK CIR / Grnd$339,000321092CONDO
4306 BOTTICELLI ST$475,00022.22043CONDO
1437 OAK ST$660,000311070DETACHD
58 CONDOLEA TER / Grnd$699,000332958CONDO
1290 PINE ST$750,000322048DETACHD
5861 BENFIELD CT$759,900421658DETACHD
35 ORIOLE LN$785,00032.11790DETACHD
19443 KOKANEE CT$824,90042.12888DETACHD
5311 CHILDS RD$849,50042.11929DETACHD
12123 ORCHARD HILL WAY$899,90042.12841DETACHD
4584 TRILLIUM WOODS$925,00032.12174ATTACHD
12611 BOONES FERRY RD$1,195,000534042DETACHD
17430 SCHALIT WAY$1,200,00042.12480DETACHD
754 5TH ST$1,250,000332179DETACHD
17465 UPPER CHERRY LN$1,330,000543856DETACHD
13092 AMBER PL$1,500,000433146DETACHD
4230 Sunset DR$1,699,000$42.13250DETACHD
550 MIDDLECREST RD$1,999,900$32.12332DETACHD
2301 WEMBLEY PARK RD$2,100,000$43.13600DETACHD
469 7TH ST$2,295,000$43.14050DETACHD
13180 THOMA RD$2,325,000$54.15526DETACHD
19494 SW Lorna LN$3,589,000$44.24806DETACHD
2936 LAKEVIEW BLVD$3,595,000$53.14208DETACHD
3648 LAKEVIEW BLVD$5,500,000$44.14000DETACHD

PENDING July 10-16, 2023

AddressList PriceBedsBathsSFProp TypeDays
3331 FIR RIDGE RD$339,000321092CONDO2
15470 BOONES WAY$599,000$31.11012DETACHD4
550 MIDDLECREST RD$669,900$42.11721DETACHD7
19443 KOKANEE CT$699,900$32.11650DETACHD4
18591 WAXWING WAY$759,900$421658DETACHD3
5861 BENFIELD CT$824,900$42.12888DETACHD3
6880 SW MONTAUK CIR/Grnd$875,000$332344DETACHD5
5233 ROSEWOOD ST$889,000$32.12145DETACHD5
62 TOUCHSTONE$975,000$32.13002DETACHD41
19201 INDIAN CREEK AVE$999,995$533972DETACHD36
19438 TUALAMERE AVE$1,200,000$42.12480DETACHD2
17079 CHERRY CREST AVE$1,390,000$32.13515ATTACHD121
5030 FIRWOOD RD$1,999,900$32.12332DETACHD2
17430 SCHALIT WAY$2,399,900$443771DETACHD276
2936 LAKEVIEW BLVD$2,595,000$544123DETACHD4
840 LAKE FOREST DR$3,595,000$53.14208DETACHD4

SOLD July 10-16, 2023

AddressOpeningClosedBedsBathsSFProp TypeDays
100 KERR PKWY #30$176,900$148,00011617CONDO130
4 TOUCHSTONE #80$245,000$240,21022984CONDO49
29 OSWEGO / Grnd$259,900$255,00011669CONDO67
260 CERVANTES$630,000$615,00032.12551ATTACHD40
18839 KRISTI WAY$649,500$640,00031.11344DETACHD34
5785 KIMBALL CT$679,000$665,000421346DETACHD45
5237 SW DAWN ST$674,900$729,00031.11654DETACHD5
2 MORNINGVIEW PL$789,000$742,00032.11887ATTACHD5
526 2ND ST #20$789,000$785,00022.11576CONDO5
5364 ROSEWOOD ST$790,000$790,00042.11980DETACHD12
644 ELLIS AVE$875,000$790,000422335DETACHD47
1430 LARCH ST$900,000$900,000332312DETACHD0
1448 GREENTREE CIR$945,000$918,00042.12649DETACHD139
1474 GREENTREE CIR$939,000$950,000321842DETACHD3
17577 BLUE HERON CT$989,000$1,010,000532980DETACHD5
4959 BILFORD LN$995,000$1,035,00032.12456DETACHD3
13657 PROVINCIAL HILL WAY$1,100,000$1,125,00042.12790DETACHD32
302 FURNACE ST$1,195,000$1,195,000$32.11945DETACHD10
2415 PARK RD$1,265,000$1,219,000$42.12747DETACHD32
641 3RD ST #2$1,190,000$1,225,000$32.12092CONDO3
2552 PALISADES CREST DR$1,300,000$1,295,000$42.13263DETACHD26
17237 LOWENBERG TER$1,325,000$1,306,500$32.13150DETACHD3
573 2ND ST #308$1,250,000$1,326,500$22.11659CONDO3
14611 UPLANDS DR$1,595,000$1,420,000$443118DETACHD42
1930 INDIAN TRL$1,560,000$1,650,000$333260DETACHD5
17327 WESTVIEW DR$2,324,900$2,275,000$544008DETACHD13
4947 Park Bluff PL$2,400,000$2,400,000$44.14292DETACHD372
Criteria: Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings (***We’ve used “Days” in each category for ease of understanding) .

This Week in Lake Oswego

Here are my picks for what to do in Lake Oswego this week~

Mon, June 12, 2023 – 1-3 PMAmerican Mah Jongg – Mah Jongg is a game of strategy, skill and calculation. Some say it is similar to Rummy. This practice group has many tables already formed, but if you’d like to join you can sign up to be included in the next open table of 3-4 people. – More Info: CLICK HERE

Tues, June 13 2023 – 2:30PM-4:30 PM – Slow Jam ~ Dust off your musical instrument and come join others in a relaxed setting to make some music together! – ACC, 505 G Avenue Lake Oswego More Info: CLICK HERE

Wed, June 14, 2023 – 10-11:30 AM Geneology Interest Group~  This meeting is a field trip! regular Zoom and in-person meetings will resume after this week — More Info :  CLICK HERE

Thurs, June 15, 2023 – 2-4 PMMovie Matinee for Teens (Ages 13+) ~ Get in out of the heat or just come to relax with friends and popcorn. The lake Oswego Library has a cozy spot for you and your friends. ~ Lake Oswego Library 706 Fourth St – More Info:  CLICK HERE

Fri, June 16, 2023 – 10:30-11 AM -Spanish Language Story & Play Stories presented by Jessica Amezcua from Adventures in Spanish for children ages 0-5 and their caregivers. – Lake Oswego Library 706 Fourth St More Info: CLICK HERE

Sat, June 17, 2023 – 8:30 AM-1:30 PMLake Oswego Farmers’ Market – Enjoy the region’s finest food, artisan crafts, music & fun. It’s summer and the 2023 season is in full swing! – Millennium Plaza Park, 200 1st Street More Info :  CLICK HERE

Sun, June 18, 2023 -Juneteenth Celebration- 1-4 PM – Presented by: City of Lake Oswego, Respond to Racism, the Arts Council of Lake Oswego ,and LO for LOve~ Commemorate the end of slavery with a community celebration honoring this historic day. The program includes a keynote address from Dr. Renee Mitchell, award-winning metro columnist for The Oregonian and visionary behind I Am M.O.R.E., a heART focused youth development program. The event also features performances by DJ Avelanche and Sebe Kana West African Drum and Dance troupe, youth poetry, vendors and the unveiling of the mural Ms. Willie’s Dream by Sarah Farahat at City Hall ~ 380 A Ave. – More Info: CLICK HERE

Market Activity ~ May 29-June 4, 2023

Last week in Lake Oswego 24 properties entered the market, 7 moved to Pending status and 19 Sold/Closed. Right now there are 147 homes available ranging from $154,900 to $8,950,000.

Here is the breakdown:

NEW May 29-June 4, 2023

AddressList PriceBedsBathsSFProp Type
152 OSWEGO SUMMIT$319,900221383ATTACHD
80 GALEN ST / Upper$325,00022995CONDO
248 RIDGEWAY RD / Upper$395,00011753CONDO
6336 FROST ST$549,900422200DETACHD
79 GREENRIDGE CT$675,000221642ATTACHD
4 CELLINI CT$775,000432709DETACHD
5363 GREYSTOKE DR$795,000321541DETACHD
449 C AVE$999,000322261DETACHD
1260 ROCKINGHORSE LN$1,010,00042.12176DETACHD
43 BECKET ST$1,070,00043.13689DETACHD
17079 CHERRY CREST AVE$1,100,00032.13002DETACHD
62 TOUCHSTONE$1,125,000533972DETACHD
4840 SW DOGWOOD DR$1,125,000332716DETACHD
302 FURNACE ST$1,195,00032.11945DETACHD
13290 HIDDEN BAY CT$1,199,00042.13156DETACHD
319 3RD ST$1,250,00033.11937ATTACHD
63 GARIBALDI ST$1,250,00033.14223DETACHD
18440 DELENKA LN$1,495,000$43.14696DETACHD
650 1ST ST / Ground$1,595,000$32.12767CONDO
4039 CANAL WOODS CT$1,598,000$43.14178DETACHD
1550 Country Commons$1,995,000$434818DETACHD
735 7TH ST$2,099,000$33.13073DETACHD
17327 WESTVIEW DR$2,324,900$544008DETACHD
7 DOVER WAY$2,595,000$55.17803DETACHD

PENDING May 29-June 4, 2023

AddressList PriceBedsBathsSFProp TypeDays
13290 HIDDEN BAY CT$400,50022.11980CONDO82
15923 TWIN FIR RD$610,000421721ATTACHD3
1260 ROCKINGHORSE LN$670,000321769DETACHD6
1466 BONNIEBRAE DR$849,90042.12597DETACHD15
5106 LAKEVIEW BLVD$1,010,00042.12176DETACHD3
3520 UPPER DR$1,199,00042.13156DETACHD1
4459 GOLDEN LN / Grnd$1,900,000321540DETACHD10

SOLD May 29,-June 4, 2023

AddressOpeningClosedBedsBathsSFProp TypeDays
35 CRESTFIELD CT #35$299,000$299,00021921CONDO36
16250 PACIFIC HWY #75$419,000$388,000321593CONDO109
5822 SW ROCKWOOD CT$545,000$449,00031.11092DETACHD40
1302 BOCA RATAN DR$615,000$600,00032.11739CONDO24
2348 OVERLOOK DR$645,000$635,000432567DETACHD4
4748 AMHERST CT$695,000$675,00032.13015ATTACHD46
17515 Tree Top Way$809,900$809,900321975DETACHD3
60 TOUCHSTONE$885,000$885,000432657DETACHD9
17143 Rebecca LN$890,000$890,00032.11943DETACHD13
1421 CHERRY CREST DR$925,000$935,000432785DETACHD5
191 3RD ST #6$950,000$950,000221523CONDO33
11 NANSEN SMT$1,495,000$980,00044.14955DETACHD300
2318 HILLSIDE LN$1,195,000$1,150,00043.13258DETACHD14
2468 MARYLHAVEN PL$1,295,000$1,255,00043.13606DETACHD34
16121 PARELIUS CIR$1,375,000$1,400,00042.13506DETACHD4
530 MIDDLECREST RD$1,659,000$1,500,000433280DETACHD97
1273 WELLS ST$1,795,000$1,720,000534091DETACHD24
14381 FOSBERG RD$2,150,000$2,050,000$43.15028DETACHD1
16693 PHANTOM BLUFF CT$2,000,000$2,200,000$333201DETACHD4
Criteria: Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings (***We’ve used “Days” in each category for ease of understanding) .

Jan 2023 – Portland Neighborhood Stats + LO

Overview/Fluctuations ~ January 2023 Market Data:                

Inventory has risen again which is a hopeful sign for 2023. Though we show some activity decreases from last January, we’re rising in New & Pending Sales over December. Prices took a hit during December as Sellers looked to secure Buyers toward the end of the year. Time will tell how prices will be affected as the year progresses, but all signs on the street are of a heating market even in these cold temperatures with Buyers out making offers, & sometimes competing, which can move prices higher. NAR is predicting lower rates this year. So, essentially, there is a promising waft in the air with prices stabilizing somewhat and Buyers moving on with their lives.                                                                       

Rates: “We have seen upward pressure on rates with inflation data coming in higher than expected, but thankfully no big move with rates staying in the lower 6% range.”          Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage

According to the RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area-Jan 2023:

  • There were 1,938 New Listings in Jan down 16% from 2,307 in Jan 2022 and up 80.6% from the previous month/Dec’s 1,073.
  • At 1,088 Jan 2023’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 41.3% from Jan 2022’s 1,853, and decreased 25.7% from the previous month/Dec 2022’s total of 1,464.
  • At 1,771 Jan 2023’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 22.6% from Jan 2022’s 2,287, and rose 46.8% from the previous month/Dec’s total of 1,206.
  • The Average Sale Price for January 2023 of, $532,900 is down $53,700 from last year/Jan 2022’s $586,600, and down $33,800 from the previous month/Dec’s $566,700. 
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in January 2023 of $489,500 dropped $22,500 from Jan 2022’s $512,000, and down $18,000 from December 2022. 

NEIGHBORHOODS/AREAS OF PORTLAND:

LAKE OSWEGO (January 2023):

132 Active Listings (Dec 142)
81 New Listings  (Dec 40)
75 Pending Sales (Dec 35)
38 Closed Sales  (Dec 59)
Average Sale Price for Nov: $1,005,400 (Dec $820,200)
NOTE: Higher-Priced vs Lower-Priced Homes Sales can skew the “Average” in any given month.  Lake Oswego has quite a variety, so this tends to be a less meaningful stat, generally speaking, in this niche.
58 Days on the Market   (Dec 58)

Tuesday Night Fun!

Here’s my pick this week for a free & fun adventure in Lake Oswego this week~

First Tuesday Music at the Lake Oswego Public Library features Dr Bryce Colson. He will bring his portable organ console and accompany the classic movies J. Searle Dawley’s Frankenstein (1910) and Buster Keaton’s The Haunted House (1921). In between he’ll have some fun and educational insights to share with the audience. Sounds Like fun! Be there~

Feb 7th – 6-8PM, 706 Fourth St, Lake Oswego. Contact April Younglove for more info: 503-534-5667 ayounglove@ci.oswego.or.us