Selling or buying a home during the holidays

I am frequently asked if the winter, and specifically the holidays, are a good time to be selling or buying a home. My answer is yes. There are several advantages to selling or buying at this time of year.

First, a home that is warm and decorated for the holidays is extremely inviting. There is such a contrast from being outside and coming in. It really makes the home embrace the buyer. However, this means that you need to make that extra effort to create this experience. Keep the house heated properly. Homes where the heat is turned down, or even left off if the house is vacant, can actually be colder inside than out. When this happens both the buyer and the Realtor will be in a hurry to leave and get warmed up back in the car. Also, turn on every light in the house and open every curtain or blind. Buyers want a house that has lots of light. Because so many of our days are gray, it is important that you create the best light possible. I have recently shown several homes to clients that were great values and in great condition, but ruled out because they gave the impression of being too dark.

Be on top of the holiday decorations. They can enhance the look of the house, but don’t over do it and allow the house to look cluttered or small because it is filled with too much stuff. Also, take them down in a timely fashion.

There are several advantages to the quality of buyers who are out looking at this time of year. While there are fewer of them, those who are looking are serious. People are busy at the holidays so a person who is taking the time to look at houses is a person who really needs to move. In addition, many corporations have fiscal years that match the calendar year. This means that they are trying to move their transferring executives before December 31st. This is a great time of year to be marketing executive quality homes. (I’d would characterize those as being homes priced at $400,000 or greater).

What about buying at this time of year? I think there are four pretty strong advantages. 1) Interest rates are historically at their lowest in the winter. As the market picks up in the spring, interest rates trend up. 2) There aren’t many buyers looking so sellers will really jump through hoops for you. You may be the only game in town and they will work very hard to sell you their home. 3) If a house looks good in the winter, it is going to be spectacular in the summer. You can really get an idea of the actual house in terms of the light it has and the condition of the property. And 4) this is the time of year when a home inspector can most easily find water issues. If the basement leaks, you’ll more likely learn about it in the winter.

It is completely understandable if you feel like you want to get the holidays behind you before selling or buying a home. But if you do need to move, you have quite a few strong reasons why this time of year can work to your advantage.

An Amazing Market for Buyers…

What a market. Some of what CNN reports applies here locally and some does not, but no matter how you look at it, this is the time to buy if you’re so inclined. I am told by mortgage and financial planning experts that rates are not likely to go down, but only up (generally speaking) from here on out.

A professional I trust, Pat Goodell, with Prospect Mortgage, says:

Aggressive measures to keep mortgage financing available for potential homeowners have been established now. This will help to stabilize housing prices and continue to make home ownership an affordable reality. HUD has created new programs to complement existing FHA options, and interest rates remain at very comfortable levels, fluctuating right now around 6% for 30-year fixed loans.

Appraisers in the Portland area are reporting values have leveled off – they are no longer seeing the significant drops in value we have seen in the last year.

Though there are still challenges in the economy and housing market, there are very clear steps being established to ensure that the consumer is able to purchase a home at affordable rates, while providing that the loan does not put them at risk in the future. The Four C’s of mortgage lending are important- Credit, Cash, Collateral (property), and Capacity (ability to make the payment), but there are still great programs available to allow the responsible person to get into a home with as little as 3% down, and even 0 down under the right circumstances.

We here at the Blotter recommend that you talk to your real estate broker about the market, and assess your options if you have been thinking about buying but have been waiting for the “right moment”. We also welcome a call or an email to us too if you’re not working with anyone & want to talk about what buying would look like for you at this amazing time in real estate history.

Stay informed. Decide what is best for you. Knowledge + Discernment is the winning formula.

…….What a ride!

Rainfall in Lake Oswego

I think it is fair to say that the rainy season has begun. A Russian immigrant, who has become a good friend of my family, once commented to me that Oregon only has two seasons: wet and dry. If you are following the blotter from out of the area, and perhaps even considering moving here, I think it is only fair to be completely honest with you about our weather.

As you have read in several recent posts, we have a glorious fall with the trees turning colors and sunshine that is bright. It is also in the fall that the transition happens from mostly sunny days to mostly rainy days. The rain will dominate the forecast until about April. Then the transition will happen back to mostly sunny days.

Our rainfall is unique in that it seems to fall in a steady mist. While we do have days that the rain falls heavily, for the most part it is a soft and steady drizzle. I have heard it compared to the rainfall in Ireland. Because it is usually a gentle rain, you might be surprised to learn that umbrellas are used infrequently. Oregonians generally just put on a good coat and go out in it. It is really quite lovely, once you get used to it and quit seeing it as an inconvenience. It is also really good for maintaining lovely skin.

The information below gives high and low temperatures, as well as average rainfall, for Lake Oswego. The information is courtesy of www.countrystudies.us. Temperatures are listed in Fahrenheit.

Lake Oswego Weather

US Geography / US Weather / Oregon Weather / Lake Oswego

January:

Average High 46, Average Low 32, Mean 38, Average Precipitation 6.0 inches

February:

Average High 51, Average Low 34, Mean 44, Average Precipitation 4.6 inches

March:

Average High 55, Average Low 36, Mean 46, Average Precipitation 4.1 inches

April:

Average High 58, Average Low 38, Mean 50, Average Precipitation 2.8 inches

May:

Average High 66, Average Low 44, Mean 55, Average Precipitation 2.3 inches

June:

Average High 74, Average Low 48, Mean 62, Average Precipitation 1.7 inches

July:

Average High 78, Average Low 52, Mean 66, Average Precipitation 0.7 inches

August:

Average High 80, Average Low 52, Mean 66, Average Precipitation 1.0 inches

September:

Average High 74, Average Low 48, Mean 62, Average Precipitation 1.8 inches

October:

Average High 64, Average Low 41, Mean 54, Average Precipitation 3.3 inches

November:

Average High 52, Average Low 37, Mean 45, Average Precipitation 6.3 inches

December:

Average High 46, Average Low 34, Mean 40, Average Precipitation 6.9 inches

So we get very little rainfall in the summer and quite a lot of rainfall in the winter. However, in my experience, there are always surprises. The summer after Mt. St. Helens erupted never happened. It was cold and gray with very little sunshine. And it also seems to me that February tends to have many sunny days. Perhaps that is because after November, December, and January, the decreasing rain is so noticeable. I will also tell you that when the sunny weather starts again in the spring, people really make the most of it. On that first nice day everyone spends the day outside: walking, gardening, going to the coast, and just generally taking advantage of the nice conditions.

I have learned to love the rain. The sound of it makes me sleep better at night and I credit it with giving us our lush landscaping. When I visit other states that don’t get this kind of rainfall, I can’t help but feel like they just don’t have the beauty that Oregon does. I’m a fifth generation Oregonian. I guess it is just in my blood.

Mortgage Options

While we may currently be in turbulent economic times, I want to make it known that solid and safe mortgage options still exist.

I must also state that the mortgage industry has changed. There are no longer no-income qualifying loans, and 100% financing is almost non-existent. What it reminds me of is the financial climate that existed when I first obtained my real estate license in 1987. Back then you pretty much had to have at least 3% down and you had to provide full documentation to show your ability to repay your loan. That is a good description of today’s mortgage market. But even in this tight climate, there are some interesting options.

First is FHA. FHA is a mortgage option that is backed by the Federal Government. It is intended to help people become homeowners, but it is not limited to first-time buyers. The necessary down payment is just 3%, although this is increasing to 3.5% in January. The purchase price can be as high as $362,790 in Clackamas, Multnomah or Washington Counties. There are no pre-payment penalties. It is fully assumable. The mortgage insurance premiums are typically lower than those available on conventional mortgages, and the interest rate offered is typically very competitive. As of 10/18/08, there are 34 houses for sale in Lake Oswego that are priced within the FHA loan limit.

If you are a veteran, you will enjoy your veteran’s benefits when you buy a home because you are one of the few borrows who can still get 100% financing. For a purchase of up to $417,000 you can finance 100% of the purchase price. If the purchase price is over $417,000, you can go as high as $1,500,000 if you have a 25% down payment for the amount that exceeds $417,000. There is no mortgage insurance and the interest rates are always on the low end of what is offered. As of 10/18/08, there are 69 houses for sale in Lake Oswego that are within the VA loan limit for 100% financing.

My resource for the information about FHA and VA loans is Robin Cusma, a senior loan officer at Northwest Mortgage Group. I think of Robin as my miracle worker. If you are looking for a good loan officer, I highly recommend her services. She can be reached at rcusma@nwmortgagegroup.com.

So what if you don’t have 3% down and you are not a veteran? Can you still get 100% financing? Yes, you have two options that I know of. First is the Guaranteed Rural Housing Program. This is a government sponsored loan to assist rural communities. The catch is that the town that the house exists in has to have a population of less than 25,000 people, so it won’t work in Lake Oswego. The other program is offered exclusively at Key Bank. It is the Key Community Mortgage Program and it’s pretty amazing. Not only is it 100% financing, but it has no mortgage insurance. In order to obtain this loan, one of two criteria must be met. The property must be located in a targeted area (and Lake Oswego is not in a targeted area, to see the targeted areas click here) or the household income of the borrower must be 80% or less of the medium income for the county. In Lake Oswego/Clackamas County, the medium income is $65,000 and 80% of that is $52,000. So could you buy a house in Lake Oswego using this program? Probably not. House prices in Lake Oswego remain substantially higher than the $162,000 sales prices that would be the top-end purchase price with the income restriction. However, I think it is a good program to be aware of and it may be something that a borrow would want to consider using in other parts of the metro area. My source for information about the Key Community Mortgage is Lori Randall, a mortgage advisor at KeyBank. For Lori’s website, click here. Or you can contact her at lori_e_randall@keybank.com .

Finally, not focusing on low-down payment options, there remains traditional conventional financing. With 5% or more down, conventional loans remain available to qualified buyers with good credit. Because of the high value of houses in Lake Oswego, a jumbo mortgage may be needed. Are those available? Yes.

A jumbo mortgage is a mortgage that is greater than $417,000. It typically has a slightly higher interest rate than a “conventional” mortgage (that is a mortgage amount of $417,000 or less). When the mortgage crisis first began a year ago, jumbo loans were the most drastically affected. There were a couple of weeks when they simply were unavailable. The jumbo market has since stabilized. A jumbo loan can now be obtained with as little as 10% down if the borrower has a credit score of at least 700 and for loan amounts up to $650,000. Remember that with less than 20% down, there will be mortgage insurance. The old habit, to avoid having to pay mortgage insurance, was to get a combined loan that was an 80% first mortgage and a 10% second mortgage. The borrower ended up with 90% financing, but didn’t have the additional monthly cost of mortgage insurance. There are rumors that these sort of combined loans may be coming back. We will have to wait and see.

The source of my information for jumbo loans is Naida Paris at Valley Mortgage. I have known and worked with Naida for over 20 years. There is no lender with greater integrity than Naida. I highly recommend her services. Naida can be reached at naidaparis@yahoo.com .

While the economic times may be troubling, the mortgage industry has not come to a total standstill. If you find yourself at a point in your life where you need to buy or to sell a home, there are good mortgage options available.

Where did the Lake go?

Sewer CoverOne of the things that I always explain to anyone buying a home in Lake Oswego, and particularly a lakefront home, is that the lake has a history of routine maintenance that occasionally requires a draw down of the water level.

For years this was done every other winter. Remember that while there is a natural lake area that is fed by the Tualatin River, much of the lake was enlarged by man and the water level is controlled via the in-take gate at the Tualatin River and the dam along McVey Avenue.

In the past the reason for the draw down was to allow homeowners to repair seawalls and do maintenance on their boat houses. It was also used as a way to flush the lake of water that had grown stagnant and re-fill it with new water to help control the build up of algea.

Then a few years ago the Lake Corporatation installed aerators that added oxygen to the water and lessened the need for such frequent draw downs as a means of keeping the lake clean. So it has been awhile since there has been a draw down of the lake water.

That will be changing in the fall of 2010.

Beginning this fall, the City of Lake Oswego is in the preliminary stages of what is known as the Lake Oswego Interceptor Sewer Project. Basically, the sewer that now serves 2/3 of the city is submerged 14 to 21 feet under the lake. It was built in the 1960’s and is vulnerable to earthquake damage as well as being too small to accommodate the needs of the community. So a new interceptor will be constructed and that is going to have an impact on how the lake looks and how we are able to use it.

There will be 3 phases to the construction. Phase one is beginning now. It involves obtaining permits, securing funding, and obtaining bids. This is all the paper shuffling stuff, and while citizen input is encouraged, unless you make an effort to get involved, you won’t see anything different happening.

Phase two is in-lake construction that can be done from barges without drawing down the water. This phase is expected to begin in early 2009 and last about a year. During this phase you will see numerous barges on the lake and you will also see construction access points and large quantities of materials being stored at various locations. Access points are expected to be at the Alder Point and the Maple Circle easements.

The last phase is when the water draw down is to occur. This phase is expected to begin in September of 2010 and be completed by Spring of 2011. The idea is to have it completed by summer to allow the normal summer use of the lake. As with all construction projects, I’d advise being a bit flexible on that one. Construction access points will expand to also include the Lake Corporation Marina on McVey Avenue, the Allen Road Easement, and the Northshore Bridge Easement.

For full details on the Sewer Interceptor Project click here.

So don’t be surprised when there is an occasional draw down of the lake level. It has happened many times over the years, and it will certainly be happening in the near future.

Electric cars in Lake Oswego? You bet!

Lake Oswego Electric Car Charging StationI was pleasantly surprised yesterday morning to find an article on the front page of the Clackamas County edition of the Oregonian featuring a story about the new electric-car, plug-in charging station that is now in Lake Oswego.

Located on A Avenue, it is right in the heart of the downtown shopping and dining district. If you own an electric car, you can park at the curb and charge your car for FREE.

The station is one of 5 that PGE has installed in the State of Oregon. Their hope is to have 12 stations established in anticipation of car manufacturers rolling out new lines of hybrid/plug-in vehicles by 2010. For the details from PGE, click here to link to their website.

The new station in Lake Oswego was paid for by the City of Lake Oswego at a cost of about $5000. The September 23rd Oregonian quotes Lake Oswego Mayor Judie Hammerstad as saying “This is a big step forward in sustainability and reducing carbon emissions.” The article goes on to explain that the electricity that will be used will be paid for in a partnership with the City of Lake Oswego and local businesses. The hope is that while drivers will frequent the area to charge up their cars, they will also stay in the area to shop, dine, and support local businesses.

I know that I am totally excited about the changes that the high cost of gas are creating in the auto manufacturing industry. I intend to stay in my 4-year old, 80,000 mile car for another year or two in anticipation of the better choices for hybrids and plug-in hybrids that will be offered to consumers in the next few years. I think this is something that should have happened years ago, and I am glad that consumer demand is pressing the changes.

If you’d like a little background on electric cars, I highly recommend the 2006 documentary Who Killed the Electric Car? Produced by Papercut Films, it won many awards at film festivals throughout 2006 and 2007. It tells a fascinating tale about a successful electric car that was built years ago and then pulled from the market. It will also show you how doable the electric car is. Not only does it have no emissions, it has no maintenance along the lines of oil changes or filter changes, and it makes no sound.

It is my understanding that the average trip in an auto is under 50 miles. I think the ideal car would be a plug-in hybrid. It would operate on electricity for the first 50 miles, for daily driving, and then convert to a hybrid that is supported by gas, for trips that are longer than 50 miles. So in a couple of years when I pony up and by that plug-in hybrid, I now have a place to charge it for free when I do business in downtown Lake Oswego. How cool is that?

For the full text of the September 23rd Oregonian article click here.

Say What?

SEERMKS

Recently, one of my clients voiced exasperation regarding abbreviations on the MLS. She wondered if I might change them so that others looking at her property online would not be as confused as she was. I explained that as much as I might like to do that for her, these abbreviations are mostly generated automatically by the system, and not under my control as a Realtor.

This got me to thinking… Those of us in “the business” get used to seeing these abbreviations, and though occasionally one comes up with which we are unfamiliar, we are acclimated to most of them. I am sure that many people searching for properties would benefit from a resource to assist in this regard. Until that time comes, I thought I’d offer a list of some of the more interesting ones. A few of these may only show up on Realtor-accessible information, but most can pop up for you when you’re searching and cause you to see stars… or question marks:

ACC-ACT According to Accountant

ACC-OWN According to Owner

ACT-SOL Active Solar Heat

ALY Alley

APOD Annual Property Operation Data

BI-DOVN Built-In Double Oven

BINLITE Built-In Lighting

CC&RS Conditions, Covenants & Restrictions

DEEDRES Deed Restrictions

ENG-RPT Engineering Structural Reports

EXTMANT Exterior Maintenance

FEASIBL Feasibility Study

FRM/FOR Farm/Forest

FRT-ELE Freight Elevator

GA+500’ Natural Gas over 500’ From Site

INVN Inventory Included

IRR-WAT Irrigation Water Available

I-STORG Inside Storage

JOINT-V Owner Would Consider Joint Venture

L Lower Level

LEGDESC Legal Description

LIM-ACC Limited Access

LSE-BAK Owner Occupied Will Lease Back

LSE-ESC Lease With Escalation

LSSECUR Leased Security System

M Main Level

MANTREC Maintenance Records Available

MINI-ST Mini Storage

MINRTRS Mineral Rights Reservations

MINSTEP Minimal Steps

MO HOA Dues Frequency Every Month

MRCHTIM Merchantable Timber

NATLITE Natural Lighting

NEGO Possession Negotiable

NONCONF Non-Conforming Use

NO-VALU Existing Structure of No Value

OPR-EXP Operating Expense Report

OWSECUR Owned Security System

PAS-SOL Passive Solar/Passive Solar Heat

PASTACC Past Accessibility

PDS Pressure Distribution System

PLB-ICE Plumbed For Ice

PW+500’ Power Over 500’ From Site

RDSPLIT Road Splits Property

REQFILL Requires Land Fill

ROD+1 Recording of Deed + 1 Day

ROLLSHR Roll in Shower

ROWCRP Row Crop

RPROTIM Reproduced Timber

SEERMKS See Remarks

SEPLVQT Apartment or Auxiliary Living Unit

SGI State GI Loan

SH-SEP Shared Septic

SOILRPT Soil Report Required

SPT-APP Septic Site Approved

SPT-CT Sport Court

SUB-INS Subject To Inspection

SUBJTEN Subject To Tenancy

SW+500’ Sewer Over 500’ From Site

SWR-AVL Sewer Available at Property Line

TAN-BDS Tanning Beds

TEST-AV Soil Test Available

TEST-RQ Soil Test Required

TIMB-CR Timber Cruise

U Upper Level

UG-UTIL Underground Utilities

W/D-HUP Washer/Dryer Hookup

WA+500’ Public Water Over 500’ From Site

WALKSHR Walk-In Shower

WD-DOOR Wide Door

WT-CERT Water Rights Certification

WT-RM Weight Room

WT-USEP Water Use Permit

XASTFAN Exhaust Fan

YR HOA Dues Frequency Every Year

Least and Most Expensive

Back in March I wrote a post about affordable homes in Lake Oswego. My definition of affordable were homes priced under $350,000. At the time, March 28, 2008, there were 20 houses for sale in Lake Oswego priced at $350,000 or less. I compared that number to houses in Sellwood, a close-in neighborhood in Southeast Portlnad, where at the same time there were 18 houses priced $350,000 or less. What is going on today? How has the changing market affected the availability of affordable houses?

As of today, August 25, 2008, there are 28 houses in Lake Oswego priced at $350,000 or less. These are detached homes: not condos or attached townhouses. The least expensive house for sale right now in Lake Oswego is a 2 bedroom, 1 bath house with 1320 square feet in Lake Grove priced at $199,900. And how about Sellwood? As of today there are 32 houses for sale in Sellwood priced at $350,000 or less. The least expensive house for sale in Sellwood is a 1 bedroom, 1 bath house with 831 square feet for $175,000. So while there are more available in Sellwood, the difference in available, affordable housing is just 4 houses. This situation continues to reinforce my belief that Lake Oswego is a viable location for a buyer looking for affordable housing.

In the course of doing this research I found a couple of houses currently for sale in Lake Oswego that stand out as total bargains. There is a house in Rivergrove that backs up to the playground at Rivergrove Elementary School that has 1744 square feet, 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths for $297,400. There is also a good deal up by Hallinan Elementary School that is 1500 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths for $289,000.

How about the other extreme? What is happening in the million dollar price range? There are currently 25 houses for sale in Lake Oswego that are priced at over $2,000,000. The most expensive is the same house that was the most expensive the last time I did this little comparison back in March. It’s on Oswego Lake with 5800 square feet, 4 bedrooms, 5.5 baths, and priced, still, at $7,500,000. Are these high-end homes selling? In the last 6 months just 3 homes have sold that were priced over $2,000,000. It makes me think that the other 25 that are currently for sale are going to be on the market for awhile.

Finally, there is a phenomenon I have been watching, and that is the spec homes that are currently for sale priced over $1,000,000. A spec home is a house that is built by a builder before there is a buyer. The builder is “speculating” on a future sale. Lots of money has been made by local builders in Lake Oswego in the last few years. As you drive through town you see lots and lots of new homes and homes under construction. How is the current market affecting these builders? As of today, August 25, 2008, there are 48 new homes for sale that are priced between $1,000,000 and $6, 300,000. And in the last 6 months there were 7 closed sales and 3 pending sales within this inventory. So it’s slow.

I find it all very interesting. With the slow market, I think there are some tremendous deals to be found. And I remain convinced that Lake Oswego is a viable option for a buyer looking for an affordable home.

Ride, Run, Walk Around the Lake

Absolutely one of the best features of living in Lake Oswego is the ability to enjoy the lake. And one of my favorite ways to enjoy it is by riding a bike, or taking a walk or a jog around it. The first time I ran the lake was in 1980. I have done it many, many times since then. Although I have to admit that these days instead of running it, I bike or walk it. It’s just about 8 miles all the way around. Biking it, the challenge is to do it in one hour’s time. I know that does not seem very fast, but there are two substantial hills in the ride and if you can do it in an hour, you are kicking some serious #*%*. Walking it takes about 2.5 hours, and running it, back in my hey day, took just over an hour.

The route around the lake is not an obvious course. You need to have someone who has done it before show it to you. I suppose you could just journey out and figure it out, but there are a couple of spots where taking the right turn will not only make the route more enjoyable, but it will also make it more safe.

I am going to outline the basic route. **UPDATED: MAP AT BOTTOM OF THIS ARTICLE**

I will try to keep the directions easy to follow. I do the route in a clockwise circle. You can reverse it if you like, but I do it clockwise because with this route you warm up properly for the hills and then also cool down before you finish.

Start at the Lake Grove Swim Park, which is just North of the intersection of Southshore Blvd and Lakeview Blvd, along Lakeview Blvd. Proceed North on Lakeview. I suppose it is actually slightly Northeast, but for the sake of keeping it simple, head North along the shoulder of the road. There is a nice wide bike path and you’ll be enjoying the view of the lake and the stately mansions. You will go about half a mile before you come to the first right hand turn.

This is Summit. Yes, it’s called Summit because it’s a big hill. Summit will take you on a slightly winding route up to the top and then back down again. These are some of the best views of the lake because you are up so high and you really get to see the width and breadth of the water.

After you come down the hill, Summit will dead-end at Iron Mountain Blvd. Turn right which will have you heading East. This is a long, flat stretch of road through a heavily treed area with views of the Lilly Pond. Most of the length of this section does not have houses on it. As you come back into the housing area, in fact almost immediately as soon as the driving speed goes from 40 MPH to 25MPH, you want to watch for a sharp right turn just on the edge of the lower parking lot for Lake Oswego Country Club. This little street is called Milligan Lane. It is only a couple of hundred of feet long, and I don’t think it is well marked. So be watching and don’t miss it. If you miss it, you’ll add about a mile and a good deal of time lost in the surrounding neighborhoods trying to get back on course.

Milligan Lane will take you over a set of train tracks and drop you right on to Northshore Road. Turn left so that you are continuing to head East. This is just a spectacular stretch of scenery. You will be right down at the level of the lake meandering by fabulous homes and across quaint bridges with views of the lake and of Lakewood Bay. The road takes a couple of twists and turns, just follow the signs that identify Northshore. One of the homes you will pass, it will be on your right just before the humongous rock formation, is the house that was briefly occupied by Loren Bacall and Humphrey Bogart, or so local legend has it.

After you cross the bridge with the view to the left of Lakewood Bay you will come to a 3-way stop, turn left. Go about a block and take the first right. This is is Fairmont. You are only going to go about 100 feet before you turn left onto Middlecrest. Middlecrest is not a through street. It has a barrier erected to keep out auto traffic, but there is a pass through for bikes and pedestrians. Stay on Middlecrest a couple of blocks to the traffic light at State Street.

Turn right on State Street and go a long block to the bottom of the hill where there is another traffic light at McVey Avenue. Turn right and head up McVey. This is the big hill in this route. Pace yourself because when you think you’ve gotten to the top, you have not. You could stay on it up to the traffic light at Southshore, but I have found another route that I like that is more scenic and just more interesting.

Before you get to the traffic light at McVey there is a right hand turn at Oak. Take this right and follow the route as it levels out and gives you a bit of a breather before the climb starts again. You’ll cross a little bridge in an area that feels like a grotto. It is cool and moist and very refreshing on a hot day. Just after the little bridge you’ll turn right onto Palisades Terrace. This is another beautiful neighborhood where the houses will completely distract you from your saddle sores or your tired feet. You are now about 5 miles into the route with just a couple more to go. The uphill climb starts again while you are on Palisades Terrace. You’ll know you’re there, believe me. Palisades Terrace dead ends at Southshore Blvd.

Turn right at Southshore so that you are heading West. You’ll continue to climb for about half a mile. At the top, not only is there a bench where you can sit and look out at the lake, but there is also a drinking fountain. Yahoo! Continue down Southshore as you descend the hill and begin to cross the canals. Southshore will end at Lakeview Blvd, where when you turn right you will find yourself back at the beginning where you started.

Once upon a time this was a pretty treacherous route because you shared the road with cars. Today, pretty much the whole way is either on quiet neighborhood streets or has nice bike paths to separate you from the cars.

What I like about it is that it has a variety of terrain. There are a couple of hills to challenge, but not beat you up too badly, and there are so many great views of homes and the lake.

I do have a slight modification I do for the bike ride at the bottom of McVey that will put you onto a more gentle climb up the hill. For the sake of wearing out my welcome in your brain today, I am not including it here. But if you’d like to know it, drop me an e-mail and I”d be happy to share. (jdgregoire@earthlink.net) Or perhaps it will become a future posting.

If you do try my route around the lake I’d love to hear from you. I also apologize if somehow my directions are confusing or get you lost. As always, I think in this public venue I should remind you to observe the rules of the road, wear a helmet, and stay safe. I think you’ll find that it is an amazing way to get some exercise and to take advantage of this great town. Enjoy!


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Go West Young Man!

I think a good question to ask is why our values are remaining relatively high compared to other parts of the United States. In one word: migration.

United Van Lines has tracked shipment patterns for people relocating within the United States since 1977. Their most recent study, which tracks migration patterns that occured in 2007, shows some interesting patterns.

2007-united-van-lines-migration-study-a.jpg

The area of the country that lost the greatest number of people was the Great Lakes Region with Michigan leading the pack as the top out-bound location. Other states with high out-bound migration were North Dakota and New Jersey. When looking at the out-bound trends, one that caught my eye was that the migration out of California slowed down last year to the smallest percentage seen in five years.

So where were migration trends of states that had more people moving in than moving out? In the South and in the West. North Carolina was the #1 destination state with Alabama and South Carolina not too far behind. In the West, the states that lead the pack for in-bound migration were Nevada, Oregon, and Arizona.

The economics of real estate value has a whole lot to do with demand. In Michigan, where the auto industry is a huge employer and has had to lay off many of its workers, it would make sense that there would be people moving away, less demand for housing, and lowering prices. In states like Oregon, where there are more people moving in than are moving out, it would have the reverse of the same logic. People moving in creates more demand for housing which could help to keep home prices stable.

Having said all of that, I found the statistic about California really interesting. People moving to Oregon from California is a big part of the real estate market. If that source of buyers in declining, I do think that it will have an impact on our market. In addition, if those people who do move to Oregon from California are getting less for the homes that they are selling, then they will have less purchasing power when they arrive in Oregon.

It will be very, very interesting to see how this plays out over the course of the next year or two.