Happy Holidays!

Whether you celebrate Christmas, Kwanzaa, Hanukkah, Solstice or a combination, Dianne and I wish you a peaceful & cozy holiday filled with warmth and loved-ones.

We’re taking a little break as we always do, and will catch you up with all the happenings in a couple of weeks.

Happy Holidays!

Linda and Dianne

Rising Interest Rates, What Does it Mean?

I want to talk about the elephant in the room, rising interest rates. Just yesterday the Federal Reserve raised the Federal rate by .5% to between $4.25 and $4.5%.

The Federal Reserve Rate is the rate set by the Federal Reserve to dictate the cost of money when banks borrow from one another. If the banks are paying more for money, it just makes sense that the increase gets passed along to the consumer. That is how banks make money. It’s why they are in business.

I do think that the increased cost of mortgages is having a impact on the real estate market. Higher interest rates make homes less affordable. Is this going to cause a housing decline? In a word, no.

From what I have been hearing the current situation is likely short term

Several months ago I listened to a Bloomberg podcast that featured 3 economists. The consensus was that the inventory is so low, that the demand for housing will keep the real estate market strong.

At the beginning of the Great Recession, in about 2008, builders pretty much not only stopped building, but they also stopped laying the ground work for new neighborhoods. Coming out of the recession, in about 2014, the home building industry rebounded, but there were about 6 years of missing inventory and they just simply have not caught up, even to this day. To meet our population needs, Nationwide, we should be building 3,000,000 new housing units per year. These are houses, condos, and apartments. We have only been building 1,300,000 per year: not even half of the population need. It is going to take decades to catch up.

Economics is all about supply and demand. With the demand high and supply low, that supports housing values.

Interest rate forecast according to the NAR

The other source of some interesting information was a Brian Buffini class that I took on Monday. It featured Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. Their discussion included several key points:

  • Government regulations put into affect after the Great Recession tightened up the mortgage lending industry so that people actually had to qualify for their loans and prove credit worthiness and employment stability in order to get a mortgage. In other words, people can afford to make their payments.
  • There is usually a 2% margin between the Federal rate and the mortgages rates. There is an anomaly happening where the spread is currently 3%. This means that the Federal rate can increase without there being an increase in the mortgage rates.
  • Mr Yun predicts that 2023 will see interest rates come back down within the year to under 6%
  • Mr Buffini predicts that 2023 will be flat with little or no home appreciation. However, he thinks that in 2024 the housing market will rebound with as much as 10% appreciation.

Here are my thoughts. It remains a great time to buy a house. With houses taking longer to sell, people who are selling are more negotiable. For a buyer, that means addressing repairs within the sale and negotiation on the price when you make an offer. For people wanting to sell, the inventory is still very, very low. Yes, it will take 30-60 days, but your house will sell and you likely continue to have a great deal of equity.

I have to say that no one knows for sure. These are simply thoughts shared by people with some knowledge and whose opinions I respect.

As always, thank you for reading the blotter.

Dianne

Market Activity Dec 5-11, 2022

As 2022 winds down, we here at the blotter hope you are enjoying the cool, crisp air and all of the activities of the season.

Lake week in Lake Oswego there was 1 new listing, 7 properties that accepted offers and went into pending status, and 6 sold/closed sales

See below for RMLS data.

New on the Market Dec 5-11, 2022

AddressTypePriceBedroomsBathSquare Ft
2424 Greentree RdDetached$729,00032.51944

Pending Dec 5-11, 2022

AddressTypePriceBedroomsBathsSquare FeetDOM
38 Cervanes CirCondo$244,50021.591231
5 Goya StDetached$680,00042.5258639
1310 Lee StDetached$719,90032234491
1261 Wells StDetached$1,550,00043.543168
13017 Knaus RdDetached$1,738,00043.64690148
13258 Amber PlDetached$1,799,90044.5373554
732 Ellis AveDetached$2,195,00042.53482101

Sold/Closed Dec 5-11, 2022

AddressTypeList PriceClosed PriceSquare FtCDOM
3 PericlesDetached$725,000$725,00026172
6450 Frost StDetached$775,000$787,00022163
5045 Greensborough CtDetached$899,900$835,0002107112
1454 Glenmorrie DrDetached$1,350,000$1,350,00033457
5996 Suncreek DrDetached$1,450,000$1,445,00035960
285 Berwick RdDetached$1,950,000$1,950,00025603

Criteria:Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings.

November Numbers- Portland Real Estate Stats + LO

This is our monthly look at the overall Portland area and neighborhoods including Lake Oswego broken out below:

Overview/Fluctuations ~ November Market Data:

Inventory continues to increase and prices remain somewhat stable with many areas/neighborhoods of Portland rising from the previous month & some lowering a bit. Actual activity dropping in New Listings, Accepted Offers (Pendings) & Closed Sales from both the previous month (seasonal) & last year (likely adjusting for interest rate fluctuations).

“Real Estate remains the #1 asset class as a protection against inflation.” Brian Buffini

Rates: “Rates have been improving with inflation pressures easing. Right now 30-year fixed rates are in the low 6% range.” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage          

According to the RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area-Nov 2022:

  • There were 1,666 New Listings in Nov 2022 down 25.3% from 2,229 in Nov 2021 and down 33.7% from the previous month/Oct’s 2,513.
  • At 1,621 Nov 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 42.8% from Nov 2021’s 2,832, and down 17.1% from the previous month/Oct 2022’s total of 1,955.
  • At 1,498 Nov 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 43.7% from Nov 2021’s 2,660, and also down 18.4% from the previous month/Oct’s total of 1,835.
  • The Average Sale Price in November 2022 of, $584,600 is up $9,000 from last year/Nov 2021’s $575,600, and down $7,400 from the previous month/Oct’s $592,000.  
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in November 2022 of $525,900 is up $8,100 over last year/Nov 2021’s $517,800, and down $11,100 from the previous month’s $537,000.

LAKE OSWEGO (November 2022):

173 Active Listings (Oct 177)
73 New Listings  (Oct 101)
48 Pending Sales (Oct 93)
69 Closed Sales  (Oct 96)
Average Sale Price for Nov: $1,003,400 (Oct $933,800)
NOTE: Higher-Priced vs Lower-Priced Homes Sales can skew the “Average” in any given month.  Lake Oswego has quite a variety, so this tends to be a less meaningful stat, generally speaking, in this niche.
42 Days on the Market   (Oct 38)

Market Activity ~ Nov 28-Dec 4, 2022

Last week lake Oswego had 2 properties enter the market, 1 move to Pending status and 12 Sold/Closed. Right now there are 103 properties available ranging in price from $260,000 to $7,650,000.

Here is the breakdown according to RMLS:

NEW Nov 28-Dec 4, 2022

AddressList PriceBedsBathsSFProp Type
757 C AVE$1,499,900432948DETACHD
548 4TH ST$1,535,00034.13186ATTACHD

PENDING Nov 28-Dec 4, 2022

AddressList PriceProp TypeSFBedsBathsDays
7200 CHILDS RD$975,000DETACHD29884415

SOLD Nov 28-Dec 4, 2022

AddressOpeningClosedBedsBathsSFProp TypeDays
4 TOUCHSTONE #147$200,000$150,00032.11351CONDO0
4 TOUCHSTONEn #105$210,000$210,00022984CONDO3
112 OSWEGO SMT /Upper$325,000$315,000221212CONDO13
4 SUMMIT RIDGE CT$499,900$440,00022.11576ATTACHD93
6426 FROST ST$699,900$675,000432276DETACHD17
6136 FERNBROOK CIR$759,000$759,000321448DETACHD5
17608 SYDNI CT$799,900$775,00042.12466ATTACHD126
18706 BRYANT RD$789,900$780,00032.12489DETACHD6
314 2ND ST$850,000$890,00033.11814CONDO9
5550 JEAN RD$1,790,000$1,450,00044.13001DETACHD107
548 4TH ST$1,535,000$1,535,00034.13186ATTACHD0
17312 BERGIS FARM DR$1,920,000$1,827,50044.24804DETACHD0

2022 Tinseltown Trolley

December 9th, 10th, and 11th, you’ll have the opportunity to ride the Tinseltown Trolley.

The Trolley line runs from State Street North along the Willamette shore to the South Waterfront and then back again. The entire ride lasts about 45 minutes. The Trolley runs mostly during the summer, but it is brought out for one weekend in December to celebrate Christmas.

The Tinseltown event features games, sweet treats, caroling, lights, and a special visit from Santa.

Reservations are required. Adults cost $20 and children 12 years old and younger $17. To make a reservation, go to www.loparks.org or telephone 503-675-2549. For more information, click here.

Linda and I are hoping that you are enjoying the holidays!

Dianne

Market Activity November 21-27, 2022

Last week in Lake Oswego we had 3 new listings, one of which sold fast and is represented here as a pending sale, 5 properties move to pending status, and 7 sold/closed homes.

See below for RMLS data.

New on the Market November 21-27, 2022

AddressTypePriceBedroomsBathsSq Feet
5857 Carman DrDetached$575,00021972
1125 C AveDetached$1,499,000432574

Pending November 21-27, 2022

AddressTypePriceBedroomsBathsSq FeetDOM
44 Eagle Crest Dr #41Condo$274,9502190814
11 Summit Ridge CtAttached$435,00022.5157660
17050 Tualatin StDetached$749,0003319051
1451 Greentree CircleDetached$950,00043.523286
13248 Rogers RdDetached$1,125,00053.53107118

Sold/Closed November 21-27, 2022

AddressTypeList PriceSold PriceSq FeetCDOM
246 Ridgeway Rd 17BCondo$344,000$351,3007536
236 Ridgeway Rd 16ACondo$360,000$353,0009144
1728 Boca Ratan DrAttached$509,000$601,00014852
72 TouchstoneDetached$929,900$865,000390828
4051 Virginia WayDetached$999,000$1,020,000190349
5677 Charles CircleDetached$1,225,000$1,165,000296297
707 Lake Shore RdDetached$2,950,000$2,600,0002992112

Criteria:Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings.

October Numbers- Portland Real Estate Stats + LO

This is our monthly look at the overall Portland area and neighborhoods including Lake Oswego broken out below:

Overview/Fluctuations ~ October Market Data: It’s fascinating to me as I take a look at this enigmatic market. Assessing neighborhoods (or areas of Portland) is of more interest to me than “overall” numbers as I can see closer to the ground that way. I added a couple columns so that we can look at the previous month/September vs October as that is where we can truly gauge the ultra-current local shifts. As much as I hear speculations about Buyer abstinence & power shifts in the market, I see that Inventory is up, and prices are not really doing anything dramatic. Some neighborhoods actually saw price increases in October over September, and the Median prices holding show that when push comes to shove, the price ranges people had in mind in Sept held firm in October. This surprises me a little, and/but is heartening in the sense that it may indicate: folks are moving ahead w/life plans regardless, prices have stabilized, and perhaps an & an understanding that rates are temporary/there are options to change them down the road a bit.

Rates: “Inflation is showing signs of peaking which is good news for mortgage rates. 30-year fixed rates are in the mid 6’s right now.” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage

According to the RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area-Oct 2022:

  • There were 2,513 New Listings in Oct 2022 down 22.2% from 3,232 in Oct 2021 and down 20.2% from the previous month/Sept’s 3,151.
  • At 1,955 Oct 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 37.5% from Oct 2021’s 3,129, and down 12.6% from the previous month/Sept 2022’s total of 2,237.
  • At 1,835 Oct 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 42.4% from Oct 2021’s 3,187, and also down 8.4% from the previous month/Sept’s total of 2,003.
  • The Average Sale Price in October 2022 of, $592,000 is up $16,800 from last year/Oct 2021’s $575,200, and down $6,700 from the previous month/Sept’s $598,700.  
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in October 2022 of $537,000 is up $21,000 over last year/Oct 2021’s $516,000, and down $11,000 from the previous month’s $548,000.

LAKE OSWEGO (October 2022):

177 Active Listings (Sep 208)
101 New Listings  (Sep 143)
93 Pending Sales (Sep 102)
96 Closed Sales  (Sep 104)
Average Sale Price for Aug: $933,800 (Sep $959,100)
NOTE: Higher-Priced vs Lower-Priced Homes Sales can skew the “Average” in any given month.  Lake Oswego has quite a variety, so this tends to be a less meaningful stat, generally speaking, in this niche.
38 Days on the Market   (Sep 37)

Happy Thanksgiving

Dianne and I wish you and yours a holiday filled with those you love and all that makes you feel warmth and appreciation. We are so grateful to have you, this community and each other this holiday season and always.

Market Activity ~ Nov 14-20, 2022

Last week in Lake Oswego 11 properties entered the market, 10 move to Pending status, and 11 Closed/Sold. Right now there are 120 properties available ranging from $220,000 to 11.5 mil.

Here is the breakdown according to RMLS:

NEW Nov 14-20, 2022

AddressList Price# Beds# BathsSFProp Type
4 TOUCHSTONE #147$200,00032.11351CONDO
86 KINGSGATE RD, G102$295,00022849CONDO
1273 BOCA RATAN DR$450,000321398ATTACHD
15960 SW LAKE FOREST BLVD$624,900311080DETACHD
3 PERICLES$725,00042.12617DETACHD
6450 FROST ST$775,00042.12216DETACHD
17850 PILKINGTON RD$875,00032.13084DETACHD
1451 GREENTREE CIR$950,00043.12328DETACHD
4050 VIRGINIA WAY$999,000321344DETACHD
765 10TH ST$1,225,000332526DETACHD
19494 Lorna LN$4,189,00044.24806DETACHD

PENDING Nov 14-20, 2022

AddressList Price# Beds# BathsTotal SFProp TypeCDOM
4 TOUCHSTONE #147$200,00032.11351CONDO0
86 CERVANTES CIR #10-B$230,00021.2912CONDO48
112 OSWEGO SMT/Upper$325,000221212CONDO13
1273 BOCA RATAN DR$450,000321398ATTACHD3
4226 WOODSIDE CIR$535,000321578ATTACHD45
3 PERICLES$725,00042.12617DETACHD2
6450 FROST ST$775,00042.12216DETACHD3
5677 CHARLES CIR$1,225,00042.12962DETACHD97
13371 ATWATER LN$1,899,000434795DETACHD27
16885 FERNWOOD DR$2,149,00043.13753DETACHD43

SOLD Nov 14-20, 2022

AddressOpeningClosed# Beds# BathsTotal SFProp TypeCDOM
17552 DEEMAR WAY$475,000$535,00031.11050DETACHD4
15235 BOONES WAY$624,900$625,000321686ATTACHD5
1105 HALLINAN CIR$724,900$699,000321612DETACHD16
2 CREEKSIDE TER$849,900$849,90042.12906DETACHD7
12 WALKING WOODS DR$749,950$850,000332224DETACHD2
860 LAKE FOREST DR$998,000$864,00052.12025DETACHD78
14400 TRILLIUM CT$839,000$900,00042.13193DETACHD4
625 3RD ST$1,050,000$1,090,00032.12645ATTACHD4
13218 DEERFIELD CT$1,100,000$1,160,00042.12860DETACHD5
13504 STREAMSIDE DR$1,279,000$1,265,00042.13486DETACHD94
3940 CANAL RD$1,500,000$1,500,00043.13983DETACHD2
Criteria: Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings (***We’ve used “Days” in each category for ease of understanding) .