Whether you celebrate Christmas, Kwanzaa, Hanukkah, Solstice or a combination, Dianne and I wish you a peaceful & cozy holiday filled with warmth and loved-ones.
We’re taking a little break as we always do, and will catch you up with all the happenings in a couple of weeks.
I want to talk about the elephant in the room, rising interest rates. Just yesterday the Federal Reserve raised the Federal rate by .5% to between $4.25 and $4.5%.
The Federal Reserve Rate is the rate set by the Federal Reserve to dictate the cost of money when banks borrow from one another. If the banks are paying more for money, it just makes sense that the increase gets passed along to the consumer. That is how banks make money. It’s why they are in business.
I do think that the increased cost of mortgages is having a impact on the real estate market. Higher interest rates make homes less affordable. Is this going to cause a housing decline? In a word, no.
From what I have been hearing the current situation is likely short term
Several months ago I listened to a Bloomberg podcast that featured 3 economists. The consensus was that the inventory is so low, that the demand for housing will keep the real estate market strong.
At the beginning of the Great Recession, in about 2008, builders pretty much not only stopped building, but they also stopped laying the ground work for new neighborhoods. Coming out of the recession, in about 2014, the home building industry rebounded, but there were about 6 years of missing inventory and they just simply have not caught up, even to this day. To meet our population needs, Nationwide, we should be building 3,000,000 new housing units per year. These are houses, condos, and apartments. We have only been building 1,300,000 per year: not even half of the population need. It is going to take decades to catch up.
Economics is all about supply and demand. With the demand high and supply low, that supports housing values.
Interest rate forecast according to the NAR
The other source of some interesting information was a Brian Buffini class that I took on Monday. It featured Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. Their discussion included several key points:
Government regulations put into affect after the Great Recession tightened up the mortgage lending industry so that people actually had to qualify for their loans and prove credit worthiness and employment stability in order to get a mortgage. In other words, people can afford to make their payments.
There is usually a 2% margin between the Federal rate and the mortgages rates. There is an anomaly happening where the spread is currently 3%. This means that the Federal rate can increase without there being an increase in the mortgage rates.
Mr Yun predicts that 2023 will see interest rates come back down within the year to under 6%
Mr Buffini predicts that 2023 will be flat with little or no home appreciation. However, he thinks that in 2024 the housing market will rebound with as much as 10% appreciation.
Here are my thoughts. It remains a great time to buy a house. With houses taking longer to sell, people who are selling are more negotiable. For a buyer, that means addressing repairs within the sale and negotiation on the price when you make an offer. For people wanting to sell, the inventory is still very, very low. Yes, it will take 30-60 days, but your house will sell and you likely continue to have a great deal of equity.
I have to say that no one knows for sure. These are simply thoughts shared by people with some knowledge and whose opinions I respect.
As 2022 winds down, we here at the blotter hope you are enjoying the cool, crisp air and all of the activities of the season.
Lake week in Lake Oswego there was 1 new listing, 7 properties that accepted offers and went into pending status, and 6 sold/closed sales
See below for RMLS data.
New on the Market Dec 5-11, 2022
Address
Type
Price
Bedrooms
Bath
Square Ft
2424 Greentree Rd
Detached
$729,000
3
2.5
1944
Pending Dec 5-11, 2022
Address
Type
Price
Bedrooms
Baths
Square Feet
DOM
38 Cervanes Cir
Condo
$244,500
2
1.5
912
31
5 Goya St
Detached
$680,000
4
2.5
2586
39
1310 Lee St
Detached
$719,900
3
2
2344
91
1261 Wells St
Detached
$1,550,000
4
3.5
4316
8
13017 Knaus Rd
Detached
$1,738,000
4
3.6
4690
148
13258 Amber Pl
Detached
$1,799,900
4
4.5
3735
54
732 Ellis Ave
Detached
$2,195,000
4
2.5
3482
101
Sold/Closed Dec 5-11, 2022
Address
Type
List Price
Closed Price
Square Ft
CDOM
3 Pericles
Detached
$725,000
$725,000
2617
2
6450 Frost St
Detached
$775,000
$787,000
2216
3
5045 Greensborough Ct
Detached
$899,900
$835,000
2107
112
1454 Glenmorrie Dr
Detached
$1,350,000
$1,350,000
3345
7
5996 Suncreek Dr
Detached
$1,450,000
$1,445,000
3596
0
285 Berwick Rd
Detached
$1,950,000
$1,950,000
2560
3
Criteria:Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings.
This is our monthly look at the overall Portland area and neighborhoods including Lake Oswego broken out below:
Overview/Fluctuations ~ November Market Data:
Inventory continues to increase and prices remain somewhat stable with many areas/neighborhoods of Portland rising from the previous month & some lowering a bit. Actual activity dropping in New Listings, Accepted Offers (Pendings) & Closed Sales from both the previous month (seasonal) & last year (likely adjusting for interest rate fluctuations).
“Real Estate remains the #1 asset class as a protection against inflation.” Brian Buffini
Rates: “Rates have been improving with inflation pressures easing. Right now 30-year fixed rates are in the low 6% range.” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage
According to the RMLS Market Action Report for the Portland Metro Area-Nov 2022:
There were 1,666 New Listings in Nov 2022 – down 25.3% from 2,229 in Nov 2021 and down 33.7% from the previous month/Oct’s 2,513.
At 1,621 Nov 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 42.8% from Nov 2021’s 2,832, and down 17.1% from the previous month/Oct 2022’s total of 1,955.
At 1,498 Nov 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 43.7% from Nov 2021’s 2,660, and also down 18.4% from the previous month/Oct’s total of 1,835.
The Average Sale Price in November 2022 of, $584,600 is up $9,000 from last year/Nov 2021’s $575,600, and down $7,400 from the previous month/Oct’s $592,000.
The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in November 2022 of $525,900 is up $8,100 over last year/Nov 2021’s $517,800, and down $11,100 from the previous month’s $537,000.
LAKE OSWEGO (November 2022):
173 Active Listings (Oct 177) 73 New Listings (Oct 101) 48 Pending Sales (Oct 93) 69 Closed Sales (Oct 96) Average Sale Price for Nov: $1,003,400 (Oct $933,800) NOTE: Higher-Priced vs Lower-Priced Homes Sales can skew the “Average” in any given month. Lake Oswego has quite a variety, so this tends to be a less meaningful stat, generally speaking, in this niche. 42 Days on the Market (Oct 38)
Last week lake Oswego had 2 properties enter the market, 1 move to Pending status and 12 Sold/Closed. Right now there are 103 properties available ranging in price from $260,000 to $7,650,000.
December 9th, 10th, and 11th, you’ll have the opportunity to ride the Tinseltown Trolley.
The Trolley line runs from State Street North along the Willamette shore to the South Waterfront and then back again. The entire ride lasts about 45 minutes. The Trolley runs mostly during the summer, but it is brought out for one weekend in December to celebrate Christmas.
The Tinseltown event features games, sweet treats, caroling, lights, and a special visit from Santa.
Reservations are required. Adults cost $20 and children 12 years old and younger $17. To make a reservation, go to www.loparks.org or telephone 503-675-2549. For more information, click here.
Linda and I are hoping that you are enjoying the holidays!
Last week in Lake Oswego we had 3 new listings, one of which sold fast and is represented here as a pending sale, 5 properties move to pending status, and 7 sold/closed homes.
See below for RMLS data.
New on the Market November 21-27, 2022
Address
Type
Price
Bedrooms
Baths
Sq Feet
5857 Carman Dr
Detached
$575,000
2
1
972
1125 C Ave
Detached
$1,499,000
4
3
2574
Pending November 21-27, 2022
Address
Type
Price
Bedrooms
Baths
Sq Feet
DOM
44 Eagle Crest Dr #41
Condo
$274,950
2
1
908
14
11 Summit Ridge Ct
Attached
$435,000
2
2.5
1576
60
17050 Tualatin St
Detached
$749,000
3
3
1905
1
1451 Greentree Circle
Detached
$950,000
4
3.5
2328
6
13248 Rogers Rd
Detached
$1,125,000
5
3.5
3107
118
Sold/Closed November 21-27, 2022
Address
Type
List Price
Sold Price
Sq Feet
CDOM
246 Ridgeway Rd 17B
Condo
$344,000
$351,300
753
6
236 Ridgeway Rd 16A
Condo
$360,000
$353,000
914
4
1728 Boca Ratan Dr
Attached
$509,000
$601,000
1485
2
72 Touchstone
Detached
$929,900
$865,000
3908
28
4051 Virginia Way
Detached
$999,000
$1,020,000
1903
49
5677 Charles Circle
Detached
$1,225,000
$1,165,000
2962
97
707 Lake Shore Rd
Detached
$2,950,000
$2,600,000
2992
112
Criteria:Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings.
This is our monthly look at the overall Portland area and neighborhoods including Lake Oswego broken out below:
Overview/Fluctuations ~ October Market Data: It’s fascinating to me as I take a look at this enigmatic market. Assessing neighborhoods (or areas of Portland) is of more interest to me than “overall” numbers as I can see closer to the ground that way. I added a couple columns so that we can look at the previous month/September vs October as that is where we can truly gauge the ultra-current local shifts. As much as I hear speculations about Buyer abstinence & power shifts in the market, I see that Inventory is up, and prices are not really doing anything dramatic. Some neighborhoods actually saw price increases in October over September, and the Median prices holding show that when push comes to shove, the price ranges people had in mind in Sept held firm in October. This surprises me a little, and/but is heartening in the sense that it may indicate: folks are moving ahead w/life plans regardless, prices have stabilized, and perhaps an & an understanding that rates are temporary/there are options to change them down the road a bit.
Rates: “Inflation is showing signs of peaking which is good news for mortgage rates. 30-year fixed rates are in the mid 6’s right now.” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage
According to the RMLS Market Action Report for the Portland Metro Area-Oct 2022:
There were 2,513 New Listings in Oct 2022 – down 22.2% from 3,232 in Oct 2021 and down 20.2% from the previous month/Sept’s 3,151.
At 1,955 Oct 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 37.5% from Oct 2021’s 3,129, and down 12.6% from the previous month/Sept 2022’s total of 2,237.
At 1,835 Oct 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 42.4% from Oct 2021’s 3,187, and also down 8.4% from the previous month/Sept’s total of 2,003.
The Average Sale Price in October 2022 of, $592,000 is up $16,800 from last year/Oct 2021’s $575,200, and down $6,700 from the previous month/Sept’s $598,700.
The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in October 2022 of $537,000 is up $21,000 over last year/Oct 2021’s $516,000, and down $11,000 from the previous month’s $548,000.
LAKE OSWEGO (October 2022):
177 Active Listings (Sep 208) 101 New Listings (Sep 143) 93 Pending Sales (Sep 102) 96 Closed Sales (Sep 104) Average Sale Price for Aug: $933,800 (Sep $959,100) NOTE: Higher-Priced vs Lower-Priced Homes Sales can skew the “Average” in any given month. Lake Oswego has quite a variety, so this tends to be a less meaningful stat, generally speaking, in this niche. 38 Days on the Market (Sep 37)
Dianne and I wish you and yours a holiday filled with those you love and all that makes you feel warmth and appreciation. We are so grateful to have you, this community and each other this holiday season and always.
Last week in Lake Oswego 11 properties entered the market, 10 move to Pending status, and 11 Closed/Sold. Right now there are 120 properties available ranging from $220,000 to 11.5 mil.
Here is the breakdown according to RMLS:
NEW Nov 14-20, 2022
Address
List Price
# Beds
# Baths
SF
Prop Type
4 TOUCHSTONE #147
$200,000
3
2.1
1351
CONDO
86 KINGSGATE RD, G102
$295,000
2
2
849
CONDO
1273 BOCA RATAN DR
$450,000
3
2
1398
ATTACHD
15960 SW LAKE FOREST BLVD
$624,900
3
1
1080
DETACHD
3 PERICLES
$725,000
4
2.1
2617
DETACHD
6450 FROST ST
$775,000
4
2.1
2216
DETACHD
17850 PILKINGTON RD
$875,000
3
2.1
3084
DETACHD
1451 GREENTREE CIR
$950,000
4
3.1
2328
DETACHD
4050 VIRGINIA WAY
$999,000
3
2
1344
DETACHD
765 10TH ST
$1,225,000
3
3
2526
DETACHD
19494 Lorna LN
$4,189,000
4
4.2
4806
DETACHD
PENDING Nov 14-20, 2022
Address
List Price
# Beds
# Baths
Total SF
Prop Type
CDOM
4 TOUCHSTONE #147
$200,000
3
2.1
1351
CONDO
0
86 CERVANTES CIR #10-B
$230,000
2
1.2
912
CONDO
48
112 OSWEGO SMT/Upper
$325,000
2
2
1212
CONDO
13
1273 BOCA RATAN DR
$450,000
3
2
1398
ATTACHD
3
4226 WOODSIDE CIR
$535,000
3
2
1578
ATTACHD
45
3 PERICLES
$725,000
4
2.1
2617
DETACHD
2
6450 FROST ST
$775,000
4
2.1
2216
DETACHD
3
5677 CHARLES CIR
$1,225,000
4
2.1
2962
DETACHD
97
13371 ATWATER LN
$1,899,000
4
3
4795
DETACHD
27
16885 FERNWOOD DR
$2,149,000
4
3.1
3753
DETACHD
43
SOLD Nov 14-20, 2022
Address
Opening
Closed
# Beds
# Baths
Total SF
Prop Type
CDOM
17552 DEEMAR WAY
$475,000
$535,000
3
1.1
1050
DETACHD
4
15235 BOONES WAY
$624,900
$625,000
3
2
1686
ATTACHD
5
1105 HALLINAN CIR
$724,900
$699,000
3
2
1612
DETACHD
16
2 CREEKSIDE TER
$849,900
$849,900
4
2.1
2906
DETACHD
7
12 WALKING WOODS DR
$749,950
$850,000
3
3
2224
DETACHD
2
860 LAKE FOREST DR
$998,000
$864,000
5
2.1
2025
DETACHD
78
14400 TRILLIUM CT
$839,000
$900,000
4
2.1
3193
DETACHD
4
625 3RD ST
$1,050,000
$1,090,000
3
2.1
2645
ATTACHD
4
13218 DEERFIELD CT
$1,100,000
$1,160,000
4
2.1
2860
DETACHD
5
13504 STREAMSIDE DR
$1,279,000
$1,265,000
4
2.1
3486
DETACHD
94
3940 CANAL RD
$1,500,000
$1,500,000
4
3.1
3983
DETACHD
2
Criteria: Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings (***We’ve used “Days” in each category for ease of understanding) .